Saturday Playoff Preview
Saturday Playoff Preview The NFL Divisional Round kicks off Saturday with a pair of high-profile matchups. FullTime Fantasy‘s Saturday Playoff Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective. And just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean the fun is over. FFWC Playoff Fantasy Football is a great way to extend the fantasy fun and win amazing prizes! Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) Time: 4:30 Eastern Line: Chiefs -9 Total: 41.5 Money Line: Houston +395, Kansas City -500 Texans Offense Houston’s offense has been stagnant for a while. However, DeMeco Ryans’s D stepped up huge in the Wild Card round, leading the Texans to a 20-point victory. Things won’t be as easy in the Divisional round, as a trip to frigid Missouri to face the defending champs is on deck. It will take a near-perfect game from C.J. Stroud to give the Texans any chance. Stroud and company played in this building five weeks ago, and Stroud threw a pair of interceptions in a 27-19 loss. His play has regressed in Year Two, and facing a well-rested KC defense will be tough in freezing conditions. Although there is some optimism about Houston covering, Stroud is a lesser option in this four-game slate. RB Joe Mixon has cooled after a torrid start. He did rush for 106 yards and a score last week against a formidable Chargers defense. However, facing the Chiefs will be much more difficult. Opposing running backs averaged a league-low 16.2 fantasy points per game versus Kansas City. Mixon will play a high snap share and can contribute as a receiver but he’ll have to score a touchdown to pay off as a DFS option. It’s Nico Collins or bust at receiver for Houston. Collins has an over/under of 83.5 yards and is +180 to score per Vegas. However, our RDA* projections have Collins as the WR3 in this slate thanks to volume. Also, if Houston falls behind by multiple scores, that only favors Collins. Additionally, the Chiefs were below average in terms of surrendering fantasy points to enemy wideouts, so we’re signing off on Nico. After that, Houston offers up little more than DFS dart throws. Robert Woods caught three balls for 19 yards against KC in Week 16. John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson also don’t inspire a ton of confidence and Jared Wayne was just called up from the practice squad. At tight end, Dalton Schultz had a nice game against KC, snagging five balls for 45 yards and a touchdown. And only three teams allowed more fantasy points to the position than the Chiefs, so our RDA* projections (4.6/43/.33) have Schultz as a top-4 PPR option in Week 20. Chiefs Offense Houston ceded the sixth-fewest passing yards in 2024 and they did a solid job on Patrick Mahomes in Week 16. In that contest, Mahomes threw for 260 yards and one touchdown. However, Mahomes did run for 33 and an additional score to post good fantasy numbers. Vegas has Mahomes projected to total 277.5 yards (23.5 rushing) and he’s -144 to go OVER 1.4 touchdowns. KC’s backfield has resolved into a frustrating committee. However, there is a chance that the club has been saving Isiah Pacheco for another Super Bowl run. Vegas has Pacheco projected to produce 51.5 scrimmage yards and he’s +150 to score. However, our RDA* projections have Pacheco at 62 yards with a 37% chance of hitting pay dirt. Kareem Hunt will also be involved. However, the question remains how much? Hunt out-touched Pacheco against Houston previously and found the end zone. But Vegas has Hunt projected to have fewer yards and be less likely to score than Pacheco. Xavier Worthy has been Kansas City’s leading receiver, including catching a team-high seven balls (11 targets) for 65 and a TD versus Houston last month. Our RDA* projections are just under that but Worthy remains a solid start in Playoff Fantasy Leagues. Week 16 was Hollywood Brown’s first game with the club and he immediately commanded a healthy eight targets. As good as Houston’s pass defense was, they did allow opposing wideouts to score 21 touchdowns, so we like Brown and DeAndre Hopkins as quality options. Houston also allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends. While Travis Kelce has been quiet of late (at least by his standards), he tends to show up big in the postseason. Our RDA* projections have Kelce posting 14.2 PPR points, putting his as the TE2 in the slate. Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2) Time: 8:00 Eastern Line: Detroit -9 Total: 55.5 Money Line: Washington +400, Detroit -550 Commanders Offense The AFC kicks off the day but it’s the NFC game that has the fantasy appeal. The upstart Commanders fly into Detroit to take on the conference’s top seed. And Vegas is expecting fireworks with that outrageous 55.5-point total. That puts Jayden Daniels near the top of the Week 20 QB rankings. However, that is not exactly new territory for Daniels, who finished his rookie season as fantasy’s QB5. Detroit has had issues slowing down opposing QBs all season. The Lions allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position, including the fourth-most rushing yards (454) and second-most rushing TDs (6). Therefore, Daniels is our QB3 for the week and worth every bit of his lofty DFS price tag. The matchup for the ground game isn’t as appealing. Detroit surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs even with myriad injuries. Washington will utilize two backs, but it’s Austin Ekeler who leads the way in RDA* projections, mainly due to his pass-catching prowess. Brian Robinson can also factor in as a receiver and is just as likely to punch in a short-yardage score. However, Vegas projects Ekler to have one more scrimmage yard, 51-50. Proceed with caution. As explosive as Washington’s offense is, Terry McLaurin has been the only reliable wide receiver. McLaurin posted WR7 numbers in the regular season, averaging 15.9 PPR points per contest.
Saturday Playoff Preview
Saturday Playoff Preview The 6-game NFL Wild Card Weekend kicks off Saturday with a pair of AFC matchups. FullTime Fantasy‘s Saturday Playoff Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective. And just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean the fun is over. FFWC Playoff Fantasy Football is a great way to extend the fantasy fun and win amazing prizes! Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7) Time: 4:00 Eastern Line: Chargers -3 Total: 42.5 Money Line: Los Angeles -156, Houston +136 Chargers Offense Jim Harbaugh coached the Chargers to an impressive one-year turnaround. Harbaugh inherited a team that went 5-12 and instilled a new culture, resulting in a postseason appearance in Year One. However, Harbaugh’s main influence was on the defense, which allowed the fewest points in the league. LA’s offense ranked 20th overall, including 19th in passing and 17th in rushing. The Chargers did rank 11th in scoring, but points will be at a premium against a Houston defense that ranked 14th in points allowed. Although Houston’s pass defense ranked 6th overall, the Texans allowed an AFC-worst 31 touchdown passes to quarterbacks. That makes Justin Herbert a solid start. Our RDA* projections have Herbert in the top half of Week 19 fantasy signal-callers. Additionally, Herbert ran for 306 yards and two scores this season, which is another area Houston struggled against. Houston surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, which makes J.K. Dobbins a lesser option in this slate. Dobbins also won’t catch many passes. That makes him game-script-dependent. However, in a game where the Chargers are favored, Dobbins has a decent shot at seeing 15-plus touches and getting into the end zone. There isn’t a ton of upside behind Dobbins. Gus Edwards has been limited and Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins have split RB3 duties. Additionally, the recent signing of Ezekiel Elliott complicates the complementary roles. Avoid. Thumbs up for WR Ladd McConkey. The rookie wideout was fantasy’s WR10 in the last three weeks, reeling in 19-of-24 targets for 276 yards and a score. Houston allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to enemy receivers, making McConkey a top-10 play in our Week 19 RDA* projections. Quentin Johnston offers some boom potential against a secondary that has been decimated by injuries and is vulnerable to big plays. Josh Palmer is OUT, opening up more snaps for D.J. Chark. At tight end, the Chargers will use Wil Dissly and Stone Smartt. However, Dissly out-snapped Smartt 43-14 last week. Texans Offense While the Chargers took vast strides in 2024, the Houston Texans regressed. Facing a first-place schedule will do that, but DeMeco Ryan’s squad simply wasn’t as good on offense. After ranking seventh in passing in 2023, Houston dipped to 21st. There is no denying that C.J. Stroud‘s play dropped off. His metrics and efficiency declined across the board. Meanwhile, he struggled to make the same throws he made as a rookie and he plummeted to 34th in pressured completion rate (53.1%). The Chargers can be challenged through the air. However, Stroud has only thrown 2-plus TDs in a game three times since Week 7. RB Joe Mixon has also cooled off. Mixon hasn’t scored more than 10.6 PPR points in any of his last four games. Meanwhile, the Chargers allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position in 2024, including a league-low four rushing scores. Although the volume should be there, this is not a great week to pay up for Mixon’s salary in DFS. Houston’s offense has also been plagued by injuries. Nico Collins is the last man standing at wideout and will undoubtedly be the focal point in this game. Collins hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 13 but has scored three touchdowns. Our RDA* projections have Collins in for 5.4 grabs, 73 yards, and a 50/50 shot at another score. After Collins, Houston will trot out the uninspiring trio of Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson. However, none of these players are anything more than DFS dart throws in a poor matchup. At tight end, Dalton Schultz is the best bet to see the second-most targets. However, the Chargers allowed a league-low two scores to opposing TEs this season, which severely caps his upside. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5) Time: 8:00 Eastern Line: Baltimore -10 Total: 43.5 Money Line: Pittsburgh +400, Baltimore -550 Steelers Offense The Steelers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five matchups with Baltimore. Additionally, the UNDER has hit in 8-of-11 in this AFC North rivalry. However, that paints an ugly picture for Pittsburgh’s offense- a unit that scored all of two touchdowns against Baltimore this season. QB Russell Wilson averaged 211 passing yards, one TD, and one INT in two games versus Baltimore. That’s precisely where our Week 19 RDA* projections have Wilson, making him an unappealing fantasy option. While the Ravens have struggled against the pass, Baltimore’s league-best offense and excellent run defense make the Ravens a poor matchup for running backs. Pittsburgh will use both of their backs, with Najee Harris leading the way. In those two prior matchups, Harris accumulated an innocuous 105 rushing yards with four receptions. Jaylen Warren was better in those games and offers more appeal as a double-digit underdog. Warren reeled in all nine of his targets against the Ravens, racking up 71 receiving yards and averaging over four yards per carry. Paying up for George Pickens is a hard pill to swallow after last week’s embarrassment. However, this is a good rebound spot for Pickens, who caught 8-of-12 targets for 89 yards back in Week 11 against the Ravens. Pickens has topped 75 yards in three of his five career matchups versus Baltimore, who also allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receiver this season. As double-digit dogs, Pickens will see a favorable game script. Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson are the next best bets but offer low floors. However, TE Pat Freiermuth gets a positive matchup. Baltimore surrendered 12.9
